9 Jul · 03:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1352
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skorski
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1407
FormLLWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H48-43
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-43)