9 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1363
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1387
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H20-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.