9 Jul · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1486
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1540
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H8-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-2)