9 Jul · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1475
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Brozek
PB
🇵🇱Piotr Brozek
ELO 1505
FormLLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.