9 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1531
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1556
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.