9 Jul · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1439
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sulkowski
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1362
FormWWLLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)