9 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1434
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Solilo
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1402
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Stapor rarely covers set handicap as underdog 38% (24)
Fair odds · Solilo
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.