9 Jul · 12:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1397
FormWLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1475
FormLWWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H17-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-14)