9 Jul · 14:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1486
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lilien
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1423
FormLLWLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 47% · 2.14· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H15-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-12)