9 Jul · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1490
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lilien
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1424
FormWLLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H1-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)