9 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1373
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1406
FormLWLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H17-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.