9 Jul · 15:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1628
FormWLWWL
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Poliniewicz
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1474
FormLLLWW
66%
34%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~76 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+154
H2H50-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+154)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-11)