9 Jul · 23:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇵🇱Patryk Jendrzejewski
ELO 1590
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Witkowski
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Witkowski
ELO 1614
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Witkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H17-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.