9 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇵🇱Jerzy Debski
ELO 1429
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kwiatkowski
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1442
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kwiatkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.