9 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1344
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1372
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H14-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.