9 Jul · 19:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1572
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Koczyba
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1568
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H37-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.