9 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1362
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trela
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1349
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H52-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.