9 Jul · 21:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1366
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1415
FormWLLLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H56-55
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-55)