9 Jul · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1354
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mugowski
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1350
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.