9 Jul · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1567
FormLLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Koczyba
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1494
FormWWWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H15-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-3)