9 Jul · 23:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1353
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1414
FormLWWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H57-55
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (57-55)