9 Jul · 23:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1356
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mugowski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1351
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H23-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.