10 Jul · 00:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1359
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1363
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.19· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.