10 Jul · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1343
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1365
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H18-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.