10 Jul · 01:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1548
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lebek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1499
FormLWLWW
55%
45%
🌟Lebek covers set handicap as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 42% · 2.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)