10 Jul · 00:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1578
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Adamus
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1520
FormLLLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H32-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-21)