10 Jul · 00:40 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1460
FormWWLWW
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1666
FormWWWWW
29%
71%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~73 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+206
H2H59-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+206)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (59-18)