10 Jul · 00:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1343
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1356
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 33% · 2.99· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.