10 Jul · 02:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1569
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Adamus
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1507
FormWLWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)