10 Jul · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1546
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lebek
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1530
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🌟Lebek covers set handicap as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H9-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.