10 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1380
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1384
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H9-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.