10 Jul · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1589
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1648
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H12-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-8)