10 Jul · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1352
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kaczmarek
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1291
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
🌟Cesarz goes over total as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H34-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-11)