10 Jul · 12:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1516
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wos
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1443
FormLLWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Wos
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)