10 Jul · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1528
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🌟Kolek goes over total as favourite 78% (23)
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.