10 Jul · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1453
FormLWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1535
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
🌟Kolek goes over total as favourite 78% (23)
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)