10 Jul · 15:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1677
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Nowalinski
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1655
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as favourite 63% (35)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H32-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.