10 Jul · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1457
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1506
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H105-70
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (105-70)