10 Jul · 19:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1457
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vincenec
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1466
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H11-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.