10 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gluszek
ELO 1349
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1359
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Gluszek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 31% (13)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.