10 Jul · 18:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MW
🇵🇱Marcin Wozniczka
ELO 1500
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wozniczka
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1426
FormLLLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Wozniczka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H16-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-8)