10 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1373
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Orszulik
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1411
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~83 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.