10 Jul · 20:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1414
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Natkaniec
KM
🇵🇱Krzysztof Malcher
ELO 1386
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Natkaniec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.