10 Jul · 23:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1352
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Nowak
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1351
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Ruszkiewicz goes over total as underdog 80% (15)
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H14-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.