10 Jul · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1402
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wiza
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1362
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H42-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.