11 Jul · 00:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1335
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Staniszewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1352
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.