11 Jul · 00:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1356
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1370
FormWWLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.