11 Jul · 01:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1377
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Orszulik
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1419
FormLWWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)