11 Jul · 03:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1394
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Orszulik
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1412
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.