11 Jul · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1376
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowol
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1365
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kowol
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.